A new study estimates the unlicensed online market at US$462 million in 2025 and highlights the fiscal and regulatory stakes of Chile’s ongoing gambling debate
A new study has added fresh weight to Chile’s online gambling debate by arguing that the country’s unlicensed digital betting market is no longer a side issue. It is now large enough to matter for tax policy, consumer protection, market structure and future regulation.
The report, “Apuestas en Chile: regulación y peso económico de un mercado en expansión”, was published on 17 July 2026 by Andrés Araya, Fabián Belmar, Xiomara Kuwae and Sebastián Aliaga under the Punto de Referencia banner. Its core conclusion is that Chile’s online betting market has expanded far beyond the limits of the country’s older gambling framework, which was built around land-based casinos, horseracing and lottery products.
According to the study, Chile’s regulated gambling market generated gross gaming revenue of CLP 787.281 billion in 2025, equivalent to around US$842 million or 0.23% of GDP. Specific tax revenue linked to gambling reached CLP 148.712 billion or roughly US$160 million, excluding VAT and corporate income tax.
Land-based casinos still account for most of that regulated market. The report says they represent close to 70% of authorised gambling activity.
But the bigger issue is the growing gap between the regulated market and actual gambling activity taking place online.
The study estimates the unlicensed online segment by comparing the observed size of the regulated market with a counterfactual trend showing where the market might have been without the digital shift. On that basis, it puts the 2025 gap at CLP 431.489 billion, or about US$462 million, equal to 0.13% of GDP.
That would mean the unlicensed online market now represents a little more than a third of Chile’s total gambling industry.
This matters because the policy debate in Chile is no longer just about whether online betting exists. It is about what happens when a sizeable share of consumer gambling spend sits outside the authorised system.
The report frames gambling as a public policy issue rather than only a recreational activity. It links the sector to fiscal revenue, fair competition, consumer protection, anti-money laundering controls, sports integrity and the risks tied to problematic play.
It also points to the structural changes behind the market’s expansion. Over the last two decades, gambling has shifted away from being tied mainly to physical venues. Internet access, smartphones, digital payments and sports-linked advertising have all helped turn online betting into an everyday digital product that is available at any time.
And the relationship between sport and betting has grown deeper. The study notes that this link now goes well beyond traditional wagering, extending into sponsorships, media coverage, live data and user acquisition strategies.
Chile’s legal model, by contrast, was built through partial authorisations. Horseracing, lotteries, municipal casinos and casinos regulated under Law No. 19.995 each developed within their own channels. That system helped organise specific verticals, but it was not designed for a cross-border digital market.
The result is a difficult grey area. The study argues that the online market remains outside the authorised framework while also proving hard to displace in practice. It notes ongoing legal and enforcement difficulties around platform supervision, criminal prosecution and domain blocking.
One of the most important points in the report is fiscal leakage. Applying a 20% specific tax on gross gaming revenue, the authors estimate that the unlicensed online market may have implied a potential sector-specific tax loss of around CLP 86.298 billion, or approximately US$92 million, in 2025.
That figure will stand out in Chile’s regulatory debate because it gives the online discussion a clear budgetary dimension.
Still, the study also underlines how uncertain the market remains.
There is a major divergence between existing estimates of the real size of Chile’s online betting market. The Superintendencia de Casinos de Juego has previously estimated annual gross revenue in a range of US$130 million to US$170 million. H2 Gambling Capital, in a report commissioned by the Asociación Chilena de Casinos de Juego, estimated US$380 million in 2024 and suggested the figure could rise to around US$650 million in 2025, with the potential to exceed US$1.4 billion by 2030. At the other end of the range, Yield Sec, in work commissioned by the Agrupación Chilena de Plataformas de Apuestas en Línea, estimated a market of around US$3.1 billion for 2024.
That is an enormous spread. The gap between the lowest and highest estimates is more than twentyfold.
The report uses that divergence to support its own methodology and to argue that Chile still lacks an independent, replicable measurement standard for the online gambling market.
That point is important for both policymakers and market participants. Without a trusted baseline, it becomes harder to design tax policy, judge channelisation, compare enforcement outcomes or assess how large the online sector really is relative to licensed land-based activity.
The authors also note that regulation would come with institutional costs. A more formal framework would require stronger supervisory capacity, platform monitoring and website blocking tools. On top of that, the report says policymakers must also consider the social costs of problem gambling, which some studies presented in Congress have estimated at between US$800 million and US$1.2 billion a year.
Taken together, the study presents a clear message: Chile’s online betting market has reached a scale that makes inaction harder to justify.
Whether lawmakers move toward a licensing model, stronger enforcement or a mix of both, the debate is now less about visibility and more about governance. The market is already there. The question is how long Chile can afford to leave such a large share of it outside a settled regulatory and tax framework.
*Study published by: Andrés Araya, Fabian Belmar, Xiomara Kuwae, and Sebastián Aliaga.
View the report here: https://static.cepchile.cl/uploads/cepchile/2026/07/16-233732_i5q3_PdR-778_andres..pdf
