The trade body expects unlicensed operators to take up to £800m in Premier League stakes during the current season
The figures add to industry concerns that higher taxes and tighter marketing restrictions could weaken the ability of licensed operators to retain customers.
The Betting and Gaming Council estimates that up to £800m will be staked with unlicensed operators on Premier League matches during the 2026/27 season.
That total is forecast to rise by another £200m in 2027/28, taking annual illegal Premier League betting turnover to approximately £1bn.
The BGC links the expected increase to the introduction of a higher General Betting Duty rate for remote bets from April 2027. However, it has not published the methodology or named the source behind its Premier League projections.
Up to £20m staked during a typical weekend
The trade body estimates that between £15m and £20m is placed with unlicensed operators during a typical round of Premier League matches.
It put illegal stakes during the opening weekend of the current season at around £20m.
These figures refer to the amount wagered, rather than revenue retained by illegal operators after winnings are paid.
Licensed bookmakers operating in Britain must hold a Gambling Commission licence and comply with requirements covering age verification, customer funds, anti-money laundering controls and safer gambling.
Unlicensed operators targeting British customers sit outside that system. They may also provide access to consumers who have self-excluded through GamStop or who have encountered restrictions with licensed businesses.
Remote betting duty will rise to 25%
A new remote betting rate within General Betting Duty will take effect on 1 April 2027.
The rate will increase from 15% to 25% of bookmakers’ profits from remote bets. Remote wagers on UK horseracing will remain at 15%, as will bets placed through self-service betting terminals in licensed premises.
The change follows the increase in Remote Gaming Duty from 21% to 40% in April 2026. Remote Gaming Duty applies to products such as online casino games, slots, bingo and poker rather than sports betting.
The BGC argues that higher taxes could reduce licensed operators’ ability to compete with offshore websites that do not pay UK gambling duties.
The Government expects the wider gambling tax package, which also abolished Bingo Duty, to raise £810m in 2026/27. The projected annual amount rises to £1.16bn by 2030/31.
Wider illegal market forecast to reach £33bn
The Premier League estimate forms part of a broader warning about unlicensed gambling in Britain.
Separate analysis by H2 Gambling Capital forecasts that the amount staked with illegal operators will rise from nearly £17bn in 2025 to more than £33bn by 2028.
Under that forecast, unlicensed online betting and gaming could account for 19.2% of total stakes by 2028.
The figures are projections rather than recorded gambling transactions. Measuring illegal activity is difficult because unlicensed operators do not report data to the Gambling Commission or HM Revenue & Customs.
WARC reports growth in unregulated advertising
Research prepared by WARC estimates that unregulated companies now account for close to half of UK gambling advertising expenditure.
The research forecasts spending by unregulated businesses will increase by 32% to £845m, while licensed operators reduce their expenditure.
WARC expects unregulated businesses to account for most gambling advertising spending by 2028 if the current trend continues.
Much of the increase is concentrated in digital channels, where offshore operators can target British consumers through search, social media and affiliate websites.
Premier League begins shirt-front restriction
Premier League clubs agreed voluntarily to remove gambling operators from the front of matchday shirts from the beginning of the 2026/27 season.
Gambling brands may still appear in other commercial positions, including shirt sleeves and training clothing.
The BGC supports the shirt-front change and has welcomed government proposals intended to prevent Premier League clubs from working with gambling operators that do not hold a British licence.
It has called for any restriction on unlicensed sponsorship to cover all UK sports rather than Premier League football alone.
The organisation argues that reducing visible advertising by licensed companies will not necessarily reduce betting demand and could create more opportunities for unregulated businesses in less visible online channels.
Grainne Hurst, Chief Executive of the Betting and Gaming Council
“Millions of football fans will enjoy a bet safely with regulated operators this season, backing their team week in, week out.
“But the criminal black market is looking to cash in too, taking millions of pounds on every round of matches while offering customers none of the protections found in the regulated sector.
“Licensed operators are regulated in Britain and follow strict rules on consumer protection, safer gambling and robust financial safeguards. Illegal black market operators do not.
“With illegal betting on the Premier League on course to reach £1bn a season, we support action that protects fans, upholds standards and keeps customers safe within the regulated market.”
Regulated sector contributes £6.8bn
Figures compiled for the BGC by EY indicate that the regulated betting and gaming sector supports more than 109,000 jobs and contributes £6.8bn in gross value added to the UK economy.
The sector also generates more than £4bn in annual tax revenue, according to the industry body.
The BGC said enforcement against illegal gambling websites, payment channels and advertising networks must remain a priority. It argues that consumers should be directed towards licensed operators, where regulatory and safer gambling protections apply.
