The industry body links flat year-on-year wagering to the expansion of sports event contracts offered through prediction markets
Competition between state-licensed sportsbooks and federally regulated event-contract platforms is becoming a central issue for the US betting industry.
The American Gaming Association estimates that Americans will legally wager US$29.5 billion through regulated commercial sportsbooks during the 2026 NFL season. That is broadly unchanged from its US$29.4 billion estimate for the previous season.
The forecast covers preseason games, futures wagers accepted from March, the playoffs and Super Bowl LXI in February 2027.
AGA points to prediction-market expansion
Legal sports betting grew rapidly after the US Supreme Court overturned the federal restrictions imposed by the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act in 2018.
Growth has since slowed as established state markets have matured. At the same time, platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded their sports-related contracts.
The AGA describes these products as sports betting conducted through a “backdoor”. Prediction-market providers maintain that their event contracts are financial products regulated at federal level rather than gambling products governed by individual states.
Kalshi operates as a designated contract market under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. However, whether sports event contracts fall exclusively under federal commodities law or remain subject to state gambling restrictions continues to be disputed through regulatory proceedings and litigation.
Bill Miller, President and CEO of the American Gaming Association
“We’re excited for the NFL season to kick off, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favourite teams. Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalised sports betting had seen tremendous growth.
“But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called prediction markets, the growth of legal handle has stalled.”
Sports contracts offered across the country
State-regulated sports betting is available in 40 US jurisdictions, a total that includes Washington, DC. Eleven states have not authorised it.
Prediction-market sports contracts are offered nationally under a different regulatory structure. This means consumers in states without legal sportsbooks may still gain access to contracts based on sporting outcomes.
The AGA also claims sports contracts represent around 80% of Kalshi’s trading volume. It estimates that users aged between 18 and 20 account for US$5.1 billion of that activity.
Although these users are legal adults, the minimum age for regulated sports betting is 21 in 35 of the 40 jurisdictions where the activity is authorised, according to the association.
The figures are AGA estimates and the organisation has not published a detailed supporting dataset showing how the age-related volume was calculated.
State regulation and consumer protection
Licensed sportsbooks must follow the rules of each state or tribal jurisdiction in which they operate. Requirements commonly cover age verification, responsible gambling controls, advertising, anti-money laundering procedures and the payment of gaming taxes.
Prediction-market providers follow federal commodities requirements but generally do not hold state sports betting licences or pay state gaming taxes on their sports contracts.
The AGA estimates that activity through Kalshi, Polymarket and similar platforms has displaced more than US$1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue since 2025. This represents estimated foregone revenue rather than tax formally assessed or owed by those companies.
Bill Miller, President and CEO of the American Gaming Association
“These prediction-market platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what they are: entertainment.
“Kalshi and other prediction markets say they do not need to follow state and tribal sports betting laws or pay state gaming taxes. Their defiance means consumers, including teenagers and college freshmen, are placing bets without the protections, oversight and accountability that the legal market provides.”
The association is encouraging NFL bettors to distinguish between state- or tribal-licensed sportsbooks, prediction markets and illegal betting operators.
The AGA says the wider regulated US gaming industry supports 1.8 million jobs. Its original announcement also described US$18 billion as annual sports betting tax revenue, but available state data indicates that the figure cannot represent one year of sports betting taxes. It has therefore not been presented as an annual total here.
